‘Rising Uncertainty’ Weighs On Outlook

Last week, the National Restaurant Association issued a revised economic outlook. It entails lower projections for gross domestic product and employment growth, slightly elevated expectations for inflation and an increased recession risk.

Here’s some of the key data as of April 2025:

• 0.9%: The projected value of goods and services produced in the U.S. (or real GDP), compared to 2.8% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2023. This represents the weakest annual gain since 2020 (when it fell -2.2%), notes the report.
• 1.0%: The association’s total U.S. employment projection, down from 1.3% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2023. Employers added an average of 152,000 jobs during the in the first three months of the year, only slightly below the average monthly rate of job growth during 2024. However, job growth varies by state, with the highest unemployment rates in Nevada (5.8%), California (5.4%), Michigan (5.4%) and the District of Columbia (5.4%). The national unemployment rate stood at 4.2% in March.
• 1.4%: The rate at which disposable personal income (a key driver of restaurant sales) is projected to increase in 2025, as compared to 2.7% in 2024 and 5.1% in 2023.
• 3.6%: The Consumer Price Index, compared to 3.0% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2023. The potential impact of tariffs on consumer prices add to the uncertainty, says the association.

“Overall, the expectation is that the U.S. economy will slow significantly in 2025,” says the association. For more data and insight, keep tabs on the association’s economic reports here.